Announcements

SDA Member David Swanson has published the following article:

Swanson, D. A. (2024). Estimating the stochastic uncertainty underlying sample-based estimates of infant mortality in the Philippines: a first-time application to a country in the Southeast Asia/Pacific Basin region. Asian Population Studies, 1–18. https://doi-org.libweb.lib.utsa.edu/10.1080/17441730.2024.2398275

Abstract: Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. Unfortunately, these data are not available for all populations. A newly-developed method is presented for accounting for the stochastic uncertainty found in infant mortality rates (IMRs) estimated from sample surveys and for the first time applied to a country in the Southeast Asian/Pacific Basin area, the Philippines. The method is founded on the fact that there are two sources of variation in sample-based estimates of IMRs: (1) sample size; and (2) variation of infant deaths. The approach is aimed at taking into account stochastic uncertainty while preserving the information concerning the uncertainty due to sampling. In applying the method to the Philippines, the sample-based IMR estimates appear to perform well in terms of accounting for stochastic uncertainty. This finding is consistent with previous research assessing this approach in Africa and with variations, in Canada, Europe and the United States, which suggests that in the form presented here or in one of its variants, could successfully be employed not only elsewhere in the Southeast Asia/Pacific Basin region but in East Asia, North Asia, South Asia, and West Asia.

Call for Submissions: Issue on Relationships in Later Life
Journal of Elder Policy

The Editor-in-Chief, Eva Kahana PhD, of the Journal of Elder Policy invites abstract submissions for a Special Issue. Proposals should be emailed to the Managing Editor at kxb289@case.edu.

Important Dates:

• Deadline for Abstract Submission: October 15, 2024
• Deadline for Full Manuscript Submission: December 15, 2024

The Journal of Elder Policy invites submissions for a special issue focused on "Relationships in Later Life." As the global population continues to age, understanding the dynamics and impacts of relationships among older adults has become increasingly important. This special issue aims to explore a wide range of relationship dynamics in later life, including caregiving, intergenerational bonds, friendships, work connections, and other social and emotional connections.

We welcome submissions from researchers, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners that contribute to our understanding of relationships in later life and policies that relate to and foster these relationships. Topics of interest include but are not limited to:

• Love and intimacy in later life
• Intergenerational relationships
• Social connectedness and support networks
• The importance of friendship networks
• Work and retirement; examining the implications of work-related relationships
• The role of caregiving relationships

Submission Guidelines: Authors interested in contributing to this issue should submit a 500-word abstract outlining the scope, methodology, key findings, and policy implications of their research. Abstracts should be submitted via email to Managing Editor, Dr. Kaitlyn Langendoerfer (kxb289@case.edu) by October 15. All manuscripts will be peer-reviewed.

About the Journal: The Journal of Elder Policy is a peer-reviewed journal published by Wiley that features original interdisciplinary research on issues related to aging and policy. More information about the aims and scope of the journal can be found here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/page/journal/27677451/homepage/productinformation.html

SDA Member David Swanson's Concurrent Session has been accepted to be presented at the 47th Annual Conference conference of the Fulbright Association, taking place virtually on November 8 – November 9, 2024. The proposal was carefully reviewed by members of the Fulbright Association and the Conference Selection Committee, and it stood out as an excellent addition to the conference agenda!

This presentation is of a paper by David Swanson and Rich Verdugo: Population Aging in the Western Hemisphere: 2020 to 2050.

Session Title: Population Aging in the Western Hemisphere: 2020 to 2050 (SESS-4)

Session Date: Friday, November 8, 2024

Session Time: 2:15:00 PM - 3:00:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST)

Session Format: Presentation - Live Zoom Style

Focus Area: Security and Diplomacy

Abstract: Aging populations have become a major focus in demographic research. We take a “macro” perspective on the future of population aging in a first-ever examination of the Western Hemisphere as a whole, which we have divided into four regions, The Caribbean, Central America, North America, and South America. We find that the Western Hemisphere is facing a substantial increase in the population aged 65 years and over. Although there is some variation across its four regions, the population in the Western Hemisphere aged 65 years and over is expected to more than double between 2020 and 2050, increasing from 121 million into 245 million by 2050, an increase of 124 million, (102%). Coinciding with the expected increases in the older population are decreases in both the pre-school (ages 0-4) and the school age population (ages 5-19). The pre-school population in the Western Hemisphere is expected to decline by 5.5 million (-7.4%) between 2020 and 2050 and the school age population by 18 million (-7.8%). We discuss some of the policy implications of these changes for the Western Hemisphere as a whole, its four regions and selected individual countries.

Swanson, D.A., and T. Bryan. 2024 “ Using Cluster Analysis to Identify Communities of Interest for Purposes of Legislative Redistricting: A Case study of Parishes in Louisiana. Papers in Applied Geography  (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23754931.2024.2346326)

The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology has been found to limit  the kinds of communities that can in principle achieve political representation through redistricting because the process excludes “communities of interest” (COIs) that cannot be mapped. This paper shows how these limits can be overcome using empirically-based variables to define a COI in conjunction with an empirically-based classification system, cluster analysis. Our findings are not only relevant because COIs are important in redistricting, but it demonstrates that the limits identified in regard to the use of GIS-based technology in identifying COIs can be surmounted.

ScholarGPS celebrates Highly Ranked Scholars™ for their exceptional performance in various Fields, Disciplines, and Specialties. SDA Member David A. Swanson's prolific publication record, high impact of his work, and outstanding quality of his scholarly contributions have placed him in the top 0.05% of all scholars worldwide -- ranked #56 in Demography over the totality of his career. Congrats!

View Dr. Swanson's Profile

Dr. David Warner, Co-editor of Population Research and Policy Review, will discuss the journal at the 2024 Population Association of America conference. The "Meet the Editors" session will feature editors of several journals discussing publishing demographic research.

"The pandemic dramatically interrupted K-12 education for all students across the state and led to a range of academic, social, physical, and mental and behavioral health impacts. The Washington State Academy of Sciences (the WSAS) and the William D. Ruckelshaus Center (the Center) are engaging in a collaborative project to help researchers, policymakers, practitioners, and others understand the impacts of Covid-19 on Washington’s children and apply lessons learned to future emergencies. Together through this project, WSAS and the Center aim to understand the impacts of the pandemic on children, which can then inform the policies and practices needed to improve the long-term social, emotional, and educational outcomes of students, especially those disproportionately impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in Washington State.  

In particular, the WSAS’s role is to review and synthesize the key research findings describing the evolving impacts of the pandemic on children in WA state. We will also identify where more research is needed to inform new policies, strategies, and programs. Tristan Fehr (cc’ed), an Associate Program Officer at WSAS, will be the staff lead for this process.  

Our next step in this process is to create an Advisory Committee of experts to oversee WSAS’s compilation of research on this topic, identify gaps in the research, and potentially recommend where new research is needed." On behalf of the WSAS, SDA Member David A. Swanson was invited to join this Committee. 

(text copied from email correspondence)

SDA Member David A. Swanson published a second article this week: 

"The Decline of the Non-Hispanic White Population in the United States of America" with Rich Verdugo in Social Science Quarterly is now available online: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13368

The question of a declining non-Hispanic white (NHW) population has sparked debate in the United States. In examining this question, three bodies of research have emerged. One group reports that the decline is real, a second argues that it is an illusion, and the third provides evidence that the decline is concentrated within socio-economic segments of the NHW population. We use the third groups’ insight as the starting point for our research objective. Methods: In conjunction with data from Census Bureau sources, we use a series of Regression Models in this inquiry. Results: Our results show that the decline of the NHW population is real and related to factors embedded in the institutional anomie theory (IAT) framework.

SDA Member David A. Swanson recently published:

"Models for Estimating Intrinsic r and the Mean Age of a Population at Stability:  Evaluations at the national and sub-national level.” Canadian Studies in Population, 51, 2. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-024-00080-6).

Using Canada’s provinces and territories in conjunction with the “Cohort Change Ratio” approach to generating a stable population, Swanson tested the accuracy of two regression models constructed from national-level data designed to estimate two factors of a population at stability from initial conditions at the sub-national levels (1) its constant rate of change and (2) mean population age and found that these models provide reasonably accurate estimates. He goes on to point out that his findings suggest there are connections between initial conditions and stability that have been overlooked, which may be due to the fact that widespread knowledge and acceptance of the ergodic nature of the “age structure factor” may have served to mask the possibility that ergodicity does not always apply to other factors.

Dr. David Swanson, recently published a research brief, “A Statistical Margin of Error from a Geometric Perspective” in Communications in Applied Geometry (Vol 13, no. 2, pp. 185-186). The paper shows that a statistical margin of error for the mean of variable x taken from a random sample of size n from a population of interest of very large, possibly infinite, size can be presented as an extension of the Pythagorean distance between two vectors, where one vector, Vm, represents the mean of the random sample, and the other, V1, is found by summing the n values of x and letting these n summed values form the elements of V1.