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Member News: Journal Article

6 Mar 2024 1:19 PM | Julia Wolf (Administrator)

SDA Member David A. Swanson recently published:

"Models for Estimating Intrinsic r and the Mean Age of a Population at Stability:  Evaluations at the national and sub-national level.” Canadian Studies in Population, 51, 2. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-024-00080-6).

Using Canada’s provinces and territories in conjunction with the “Cohort Change Ratio” approach to generating a stable population, Swanson tested the accuracy of two regression models constructed from national-level data designed to estimate two factors of a population at stability from initial conditions at the sub-national levels (1) its constant rate of change and (2) mean population age and found that these models provide reasonably accurate estimates. He goes on to point out that his findings suggest there are connections between initial conditions and stability that have been overlooked, which may be due to the fact that widespread knowledge and acceptance of the ergodic nature of the “age structure factor” may have served to mask the possibility that ergodicity does not always apply to other factors.

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