5 Feb 2016

General News & Items of Interest to DemographersRSS


NY Times Census News

Deforestation Threatens Pygmies, Study Finds

The first scientific census of the African population finds that there are nearly one million in communities threatened by encroaching societies.

Centenarians Proliferate, and Live Longer

The number of Americans age 100 and older — those born during Woodrow Wilson’s administration and earlier — is up by 44 percent since 2000, federal health officials reported Thursday.

The Court Takes Up One Person, One Vote

Basing legislative districts on total population remains the most practical way to ensure fairness, including protections of racial equality.

Potential Power Shift as Court Weighs ‘One Person One Vote’

The voting rights case Evenwel v. Abbott has the potential to shift political power from urban areas to rural ones.

Examining a Voting Rights Case

A look at Evenwel v. Abbott, which asks what the court meant more than 50 years ago when it established the principle of “one person, one vote.”

Max Planck Inst for Demographic Research

COMADRE: Uniform data for Biodemography

Recently, the Open Access database COMADRE went online. The database run by the MPIDR contains demographic information on an unprecedented variety and number of animal species. In an article published today in the Journal of Animal Ecology, the makers of the database present their project.

Caravan of Science 2016

From January 13 to 26, the “Wissenskarawane” gives school students the opportunity to get insights into the research done at research institutes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. On January 20, the MPIDR opens its doors to about a hundred students.

Expected and Unexpected Effects of Childbearing

On January 19, 2016 Øystein Kravdal from the University of Oslo, Norway will give a talk about the methodologically and politically important distinction of expected and unexpected effects of childbearing at the MPIDR.

The impact of violence on Mexico’s life expectancy

After six decades of improvements in life expectancy, Mexican life expectancy has stagnated since the beginning of the 21st century. The reason for the stagnation is the upsurge of homicide rates among men after 2005. This is the finding of a study conducted by EDSD-doctoral student José Manuel Aburto.

Decline in dementia

In the new issue of Demografische Forschung aus Erster Hand, read about how the number of people with dementia is changing, and why high levels of education could exacerbate the effects of demographic change.

Demography Matters

"How the world went from 170 million people to 7.3 billion, in one map"

This video, publicized by Vox, does a nice job illustrating the general contours of world population growth in the past two millennia. I might find some issues with the video--population growth in the pre-Columbian Americas may be substantially underestimated--but the broad outline is correct

On Alberta, and Canada, after the end of the oil advantage

The collapse of oil prices worldwide has hit many oil-exporting economies hard. Here in Canada, Alberta has been hit particularly hard. A recent CBC post illustrating a Facebook post which went viral underlines the issue. An oilpatch worker's widely shared social media post accuses Justin Trudeau of ignoring Alberta's economic pain and pleads for help during the economic slump. Since

Changing world population balances, 1800 to 2100

The Russian Demographics Blog was the most recent source to link to Max Galka's remarkable map showing changing populations in the recent past and the projected future. For thousands of years, Asia has been the population center of the world. But that’s about to change. Asia contains 7 of the 10 most populous countries in the world, the two largest of which, China and India, each individually

A note on public health, or, how you get what you pay for

Late last month, I blogged about PrEP, an acronym for "pre-exposure prophylaxis", as Wikipedia puts it "the use of prescription drugs by people who do not have HIV/AIDS as a strategy for the prevention of HIV/AIDS". When taken with sufficient frequency, the drug in question--in most studies, either tenofovir or the tenofovir/emtricitabine combination TruvadaSouth Africa and Thailand suggest that

"Edward Hugh, Economist Who Foresaw Eurozone’s Struggles, Dies at 67"

The last Demography Matters post of 2015 noted the sad death of co-blogger Edward Hugh, and the first post of this year shall note Landon Thomas Jr.'s obituary for Edward in The New York Times. A sampling: “For those of us pessimists who believed that the eurozone structure was leading to an unsustainable bubble in the periphery countries, Edward Hugh was a must-read,” said Albert Edwards, a

The Economist

Monetary policy: The dead hand of debt

MARK Carney, governor of the Bank of England, grabbed the headlines this week with a speech that suggested British interest rates were unlikely to rise any time soon. (A bit of a victory for Andy Haldane, the Bank's chief economist, who has even suggested the next move in rates might be down.) But it is also worth reading a very thoughtful speech from a newish monetary policy committee member, Gertjan Vlieghe (formerly at the Brevan Howard hedge fund group). Mr Vlieghe examines the case that real interest rates may remain low for a considerable period (readers may recall that Larry Summers has made a similar argument under the "secular stagnation" hypothesis). The BofE man cites three factors; debt, demography and the distribution of income. It is hard for this writer not to cheer when he reads thatDebt matters. That was a controversial statement a decade ago. It is far less controversial now. Post-crisis, we now have ample evidence that households and firms with higher debt levels reduce spending more sharply than those with lower debt levels in response in a downturn. After a drop in income, debt relative to income goes up even further, to a level that is higher than where the borrower (or the lender ) wants it – a debt overhang. The borrower wants or needs to reduce debt, and in order to achieve that, they cut back spending very sharplyRecessions in a ...

Daily chart: Predicting the distribution of America’s congressional seats

NEW estimates from America’s Census Bureau show that states in the south and the west had the fastest population-growth rates between 2014-15, continuing a trend over several decades. The distribution among states of the 435 congressional seats in the House of Representatives is based on the official decennial census count. Using the new estimates, Election Data Services (EDS), a consultancy, has predicted which states might gain or lose seats if these population shifts extend to 2020 when the next census takes place (see map). Not surprisingly, some states in the Midwest and north-east lose out—New York has lost congressional seats following each census since 1950—and the south and west gain. However, the Census Bureau’s population estimates for 2014 indicated that California and Virgina would each gain a seat, whereas the latest figures suggest that they would fall short (in California by 29,302 people). Based on the 2015 data, Oregon would gain a seat with only 422 people to spare. Rhode Island would lose a seat, meaning it would join seven other states each represented by a single congressman.The once-a-decade redistribution of congressional seats is calculated from states’ total populations. But the Supreme Court is considering a case looking at whether only eligible voters should count, excluding illegal immigrants, under-18s and so on, which could affect the ...

African demography: The young continent

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  Playing with fear Fly Title:  African demography Rubric:  With fertility rates falling more slowly than anywhere else, Africa faces a population explosion Location:  MERTULE MARIAM, ETHIOPIA Main image:  20151212_FBP001_0.jpg ON A trolley in a government clinic in rural Ethiopia lies Debalke Jemberu. As a medic and a nurse winkle the sperm-carrying tubes out of his testicles, he explains why he decided to have a vasectomy. He is a farmer, growing wheat, sorghum and a local staple grain called teff. But his plot is barely a quarter of a hectare. He already has four children, and has often struggled to provide for them. “I couldn’t feed more children,” he says. The medic, who has six more vasectomies to perform that day, interrupts to say he is finished. Mr Jemberu pulls up his trousers, pops on his woolly hat and continues. His parents had seven children, but they had eight hectares to ...

Population control: Now, the two-child policy

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  The indispensable European Fly Title:  Population control Rubric:  A small town offers a glimpse of what a two-child China might look like Location:  YICHENG Main image:  20151107_CNP002_0.jpg WHEN China introduced its one-child policy in 1979, it cut a few air-holes in the blanket of coercion. Four towns were quietly allowed to experiment with different approaches, allowing couples to have two children. On October 29th the Communist Party extended that kind permission to everyone. If it had been paying closer attention to its two-child enclaves, it might have done so sooner. So sensitive was the notion of allowing anyone to have two children that it was not until 2010 that mainland media drew attention to these towns’ policies. One of them, Yicheng in Shanxi province, lies in the basin of the Yellow River. At first sight, it seems like any other small town in China, though a little poorer ...

Tasting Menu: August 21st 2015 edition

UK Only Article:  standard article Fly Title:  Tasting Menu Rubric:  This week: Asia's floundering fertility rates, how to invest like the Amish and why arachnophobes shouldn't look up Main image:  20150822_mma903_107.jpg Published:  20150821 Source:  Online extra Enabled

Urban Institute

Death Rates for US Women Ages 15 to 54 : Some Unexpected Trends

Recent trends in death rates among US women ages 15 to 54 reveal that rates among non-Hispanic whites are rising for many causes of death. These rising causes include accidental poisoning (linked to the epidemic of prescription opioids), suicide, and obesity- and smoking-related diseases. Specific changes in behavior might reduce some of these death rates, but the range of rising causes of death among white women suggests a need for a broader perspective on the social determinants of health. Unhealthy behaviors often arise and persist within certain social and economic contexts, and such behaviors resist improvement or are replaced by other unhealthy behaviors unless those contexts change.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 2: Financial Literacy and Asset Building Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why financial literacy and asset building services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

Preparing for a "Next Generation" Evaluation of Independent Living Programs for Youth in Foster Care

Policymakers have long been concerned about the poor outcomes experienced by youth in foster care transitioning to adulthood. Experimental evaluations of independent living programs conducted under the John H Chafee Independence Act found the programs studied showed limited evidence of effectiveness; however, the evaluation made important observations about independent living programs overall and provided guidance for ongoing efforts to improve services for transition-age youth in foster care. This brief presents a conceptual framework, typology, and central conclusions from current planning efforts to develop an agenda for future evaluation activities.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 3: Employment Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why employment services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 1: Education Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why education services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

INED

LGBT

This year INED is conducting a quantitative survey on LGBT lifestyles, health and safety

Demosud [demography of the Southern countries], a new INED research team

With this new research unit, the South acquires still greater importance in INED research

In the press this week

A selection of French press article on population issues [FR]

Magda Tomasini has been appointed director of INED.

Magda Tomasini has been appointed director of INED.

Just release

Trajectoires et origines Enquête sur la diversité des populations en France, sous la direction de Cris Beauchemin, Christelle Hamel et Patrick Simon. Un ouvrage de la collection : Grandes Enquêtes. Parution le 13 janvier 2016