29 Apr 2016

General News & Items of Interest to DemographersRSS


NY Times Census News

Obamacare’s Striking Effect on America’s Least Fortunate

The legislation has helped many of the least privileged people in the country get health insurance.

Website Seeks to Make Government Data Easier to Sift Through

Data USA, a project by the M.I.T. Media Lab and Deloitte, is free to use and its software code is open source, so that developers can build custom applications.

The Geography of Trumpism

A look at the counties that have a high level of support for Donald Trump shows the factors that predict his popularity.

New Federal Website Aims to Enhance Community Services

Opportunity.census.gov will bring together data from several agencies in the hope of giving cities insights into how to provide children with better opportunities.

Deforestation Threatens Pygmies, Study Finds

The first scientific census of the African population finds that there are nearly one million in communities threatened by encroaching societies.

Max Planck Inst for Demographic Research

What life expectancy does to equality

Women outlive men in almost all countries. The genders are converging but some differences will remain, says MPIDR-researcher Anna Oksuzyan in an article on sueddeutsche.de  about her research.

Families unmarried

Unmarried births are becoming the norm in Western Europe, but their share is falling in Eastern Europe as a study by MPIDR researcher Sebastian Klüsener shows.

Demography across Scales

On April 26, Annette Baudisch from the University of Southern Denmark, Odense, will give a lecture at the MPIDR. She will explain how a shift in perspective on individuals and populations opens new directions in mathematical demography.

Back to Work

Read in the new issue of „Demografische Forschung Aus Erster Hand“ how commuting to work affects health and why well-educated mothers are returning back to the labor market faster in many European countries.

Children of older mothers do better

Children of older mothers are healthier, taller and obtain more education than the children of younger mothers. The reason is that in industrialized countries educational opportunities are increasing, and people are getting healthier by the year. In other words, it pays off to be born later.

Demography Matters

Some followups

For tonight's post, I thought I'd share a few news links revisiting old stories The Guardian notes that British citizens of more, or less, recent Irish ancestry are looking for Irish passports so as to retain access to the European Union in the case of Brexit. (Net migration to the United Kingdom is up and quite strong, while Cameron's crackdown on non-EU migrants has led to labour shortages.

On women and fertility, briefly

Thinking about Demography Matters and International Women's Day, I realized that almost all of my blogging here on fertility issues, at least the blogging that relates to the incentives and disincentives, relates to the choices of women. This makes a certain amount of sense since it's ultimately women who are essential in reproduction--not biologically, true, but socially. Single motherhood is

Some thoughts on the demographics of Japan and path dependency

I learned from any number of sources, from E-mails and from blogs and from the "News" section of my Feedly news feed, that the demographics of Japan have entered a new phase. The population is now in sharp decline. From the CBC: Japan's latest census confirmed the hard reality long ago signalled by shuttered shops and abandoned villages across the country: the population is shrinking. Japan's

On Brexit and how limited free movement in the Commonwealth is a poor substitute for the EU

A couple of weeks ago at my blog, A Bit More Detail, I linked to an interesting article about the legacies of the First World War and the thin ties of the Commonwealth at The Conversation. There, James McConnel and Peter Stanley describe how a British-Australian dispute over commemorating a battle of the First World War, the Battle of Fromelles, brings our contemporary nationalisms into conflict

On the demographic limits to future economic growth

On Thursday the 21st in The Globe and Mail, journalist Konrad Yakabuski had an article published, "Fewer economic miracles in a world with fewer demographic explosions". Drawing particularly on Ruchir Sharma's March/April 2016 Foreign Affairs article "The Demographics of Stagnation". Ruchir Sharma, the head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, warns that

The Economist

Demography: The strange case of the missing baby

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  How to measure prosperity Fly Title:  Demography Main image:  20160430_IRD001_0.jpg Rubric:  As the financial crisis hit, birth rates fell in rich countries, as expected. But a persistent baby bust is a real puzzle HE IS not exactly leading by example, but Pope Francis wants more babies. “The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly in Catholic countries such as Italy and Spain. But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too. They were certainly present a decade ago. Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom. In the decade ...

Immigrant fertility: Fecund foreigners?

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  How to measure prosperity Fly Title:  Immigrant fertility Location:  DUISBURG Rubric:  Immigrants do less to raise birth rates than is generally believed FOR a Turkish woman ready to start a household, Weseler Strasse in Duisburg is a one-stop shop. There, in the shadow of an enormous steel works, are dozens of stores selling wedding dresses and glitzy tuxedos; jewellery and home furnishings. What this stretch of Weseler Strasse does not contain is a baby shop. In the early 1980s women with foreign passports in Duisburg had a birth rate much higher than native Germans (see chart). Most of the foreigners were Turks, who had settled in this Ruhr Valley city for its industrial jobs and brought their big-family culture with them. But then came an astonishing drop. Today foreigners are actually slightly less fertile than natives. That is saying something: German women in Duisburg, and in Germany as a whole, do not have nearly enough babies to keep the ...

Chinese economic data: Fudge-ocracy

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  The new normal Fly Title:  Chinese economic data Location:  SHANGHAI Main image:  Four babies, by the local count Rubric:  The way to get ahead in China is to manipulate statistics Four babies, by the local count IN THEORY Chinese officials receive promotions based on their performance against a range of targets: delivering strong growth, maintaining social stability and, until recently, enforcing the one-child policy. But scholars debate whether the system really rewards those who excel according to these (in any case flawed) metrics. Some believe the emphasis on merit is real, and helps explain China’s stunning economic progress over the past 35 years. Others reckon that connections to the right leaders matter more for those trying to advance their careers. New research, however, suggests a third option: that those who get ahead are adept not at stimulating growth nor at currying favour, ...

Monetary policy: The dead hand of debt

MARK Carney, governor of the Bank of England, grabbed the headlines this week with a speech that suggested British interest rates were unlikely to rise any time soon. (A bit of a victory for Andy Haldane, the Bank's chief economist, who has even suggested the next move in rates might be down.) But it is also worth reading a very thoughtful speech from a newish monetary policy committee member, Gertjan Vlieghe (formerly at the Brevan Howard hedge fund group). Mr Vlieghe examines the case that real interest rates may remain low for a considerable period (readers may recall that Larry Summers has made a similar argument under the "secular stagnation" hypothesis). The BofE man cites three factors; debt, demography and the distribution of income. It is hard for this writer not to cheer when he reads thatDebt matters. That was a controversial statement a decade ago. It is far less controversial now. Post-crisis, we now have ample evidence that households and firms with higher debt levels reduce spending more sharply than those with lower debt levels in response in a downturn. After a drop in income, debt relative to income goes up even further, to a level that is higher than where the borrower (or the lender ) wants it – a debt overhang. The borrower wants or needs to reduce debt, and in order to achieve that, they cut back spending very sharplyRecessions in a ...

Daily chart: Predicting the distribution of America’s congressional seats

NEW estimates from America’s Census Bureau show that states in the south and the west had the fastest population-growth rates between 2014-15, continuing a trend over several decades. The distribution among states of the 435 congressional seats in the House of Representatives is based on the official decennial census count. Using the new estimates, Election Data Services (EDS), a consultancy, has predicted which states might gain or lose seats if these population shifts extend to 2020 when the next census takes place (see map). Not surprisingly, some states in the Midwest and north-east lose out—New York has lost congressional seats following each census since 1950—and the south and west gain. However, the Census Bureau’s population estimates for 2014 indicated that California and Virgina would each gain a seat, whereas the latest figures suggest that they would fall short (in California by 29,302 people). Based on the 2015 data, Oregon would gain a seat with only 422 people to spare. Rhode Island would lose a seat, meaning it would join seven other states each represented by a single congressman.The once-a-decade redistribution of congressional seats is calculated from states’ total populations. But the Supreme Court is considering a case looking at whether only eligible voters should count, excluding illegal immigrants, under-18s and so on, which could affect the ...

Urban Institute

Death Rates for US Women Ages 15 to 54 : Some Unexpected Trends

Recent trends in death rates among US women ages 15 to 54 reveal that rates among non-Hispanic whites are rising for many causes of death. These rising causes include accidental poisoning (linked to the epidemic of prescription opioids), suicide, and obesity- and smoking-related diseases. Specific changes in behavior might reduce some of these death rates, but the range of rising causes of death among white women suggests a need for a broader perspective on the social determinants of health. Unhealthy behaviors often arise and persist within certain social and economic contexts, and such behaviors resist improvement or are replaced by other unhealthy behaviors unless those contexts change.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 2: Financial Literacy and Asset Building Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why financial literacy and asset building services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

Preparing for a "Next Generation" Evaluation of Independent Living Programs for Youth in Foster Care

Policymakers have long been concerned about the poor outcomes experienced by youth in foster care transitioning to adulthood. Experimental evaluations of independent living programs conducted under the John H Chafee Independence Act found the programs studied showed limited evidence of effectiveness; however, the evaluation made important observations about independent living programs overall and provided guidance for ongoing efforts to improve services for transition-age youth in foster care. This brief presents a conceptual framework, typology, and central conclusions from current planning efforts to develop an agenda for future evaluation activities.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 3: Employment Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why employment services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

Supporting Youth Transitioning out of Foster Care, Issue Brief 1: Education Programs

This issue brief is one of three that focus on programs providing services to youth transitioning out of foster care in three common service domains: education, employment, and financial literacy and asset building. This brief highlights why education services are important to youth currently or formerly in foster care, what we know about the current types of programs and services offered in this service area, and the effectiveness of these services. Drawing on a review of existing research and convenings conducted with researchers, program managers, and federal staff, this brief address remaining research gaps and how the available evidence should inform future planning for evaluation activities.

INED

In the press this week

A selection of French press article on population issues [FR]

How long do sub-Saharan migrants take to settle in France ? Population and Societies May 2016

Using data from the Parcours survey, Anne Gosselin and her colleagues estimate the time migrants from sub-Saharan Africa take to obtain a residence permit, a personal dwelling and employment after arriving in France.

Who are the million migrants who entered Europe without a visa in 2015? Population and ...

Presenting an overview of available statistics, Philippe Fargues addresses three questions: Is this a migrant or a refugee crisis? What triggered the crisis? And last, how can the crisis be resolved?

INED recruits

INED has openings for 2 ingeneers : Surveys and Managment Control Departments. See website for position descriptions, and a general applicants’ guide